small mistake
Posted by earthling at 16:42, 20 Jan 2010It appears that the IPCC didn't notice a small mistake in their work. Their prediction that the Himalaya glaciers would disappear (well, melt) by 2035
was off by a few years (BBC). The prediction was 2350.
Since the BBC report the IPCC has admitted their mistake.
But hey, what's 215 years between friends. Let's build public policy on random numbers.
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Comments
12 April 2007
3 hours 28 min
Aren't you confusing a typo with randomness?
It's not the depth of the rabbit hole that bugs me...
It's all the rabbit SH*T you stumble over on your way down!!!
Red Pill Junkie
22 November 2004
2 weeks 6 hours
when you're talking about checking important numbers, and you're off by more than 300 years, "random" is close.
It wasn't a typo in the final report. A lot of work was apparently based on the type.
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We are the cat.
12 April 2007
3 hours 28 min
I'm not forgiving them for the typo. A typo can be rather damaging —when someone misprints your name in your tax documents, it can be a real pain the ass to fix the problems.
But the way you wrote the comment, it felt like you're proposing the IPCC is just throwing away numbers willy-nilly for their forecasts. And that's not the case either.
It's not the depth of the rabbit hole that bugs me...
It's all the rabbit SH*T you stumble over on your way down!!!
Red Pill Junkie
22 November 2004
2 weeks 6 hours
They used a number without verification. They based research results on a typo. That is not a small problem.
2500 or so scientists reviewed these reports, supposedly. And nobody caught such a glaring mistake? Some peer review.
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We are the cat.
12 April 2007
3 hours 28 min
You're right. It's appalling that nobody caught the mistake.
Not even the so-called skeptics! apparently they're too busy rejecting the data to even bother to look at it ;)
It's not the depth of the rabbit hole that bugs me...
It's all the rabbit SH*T you stumble over on your way down!!!
Red Pill Junkie
22 November 2004
2 weeks 6 hours
My point is that this makes a significant part of the IPCC recommendations entirely baseless.
And I am giving the IPCC the benefit of the doubt, assuming that they didn't know this.
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We are the cat.
12 April 2007
3 hours 28 min
You're giving them the benefit of the doubt; and yet you question their entire conclusions, based on one single typo.
One thing we can agree on: there should be more people peer-reviewing the IPCC. Just to double-check things —that's the way things are done and NASA; problem is, that's also the reason why things cost so much when done by NASA.
It's not the depth of the rabbit hole that bugs me...
It's all the rabbit SH*T you stumble over on your way down!!!
Red Pill Junkie
22 November 2004
2 weeks 6 hours
Look, they based strong recommendations on their own prediction that the glaciers would be reduced by 75% or so within 25 years, starting to count now.
So now we find out that the time period they themselves predict was more than 300 years longer.
Yes I question their conclusions based on a time difference of 300 years. With a completely different time frame, the appropriate course of action is completely different.
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We are the cat.
12 April 2007
3 hours 28 min
What we're finding from this, is that "they" (the scientists forming the IPCC) is not such a coherent & united group as we all thought it to be. It's actually conformed of hundreds of scientists doing many different things in Climate Science.
There's definitely room for improvement.
It's not the depth of the rabbit hole that bugs me...
It's all the rabbit SH*T you stumble over on your way down!!!
Red Pill Junkie
1 May 2004
1 day 23 hours
it's not just the one so called "typo", all their other predictions are very dubious as well.
I can't believe you haven't worked out that it's a scam yet!
"Life can be whatever you want it to be, as long as you do what your told."
LRF.
10 August 2004
22 hours 26 min
...how many other "typos" there might be - after all, they're 'esay' enough to 'mkae'.
Regards, Kathrinn
22 November 2004
2 weeks 6 hours
Well, the up side of this is that we have evidence the whole thing is not being run by Floppy's controllers, or by Fahim's all powerful dark forces. Those types would never make such amateurish mistake :)
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We are the cat.
1 May 2004
1 day 23 hours
well....you got that one right....;-{P
"Life can be whatever you want it to be, as long as you do what your told."
LRF.
30 April 2004
6 hours 24 min
Not having much knowledge of the arguments about glacial retreat, I'm hesitant to add a comment. But wanted to add, after just returning from viewing the Franz Josef Glacier in New Zealand, that the information given there was that it had shrunk massively in the period from 1700 to 1909. So in that one case, it would be difficult to blame AGW too much. :)
Kind regards,
Greg
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You monkeys only think you're running things
@DailyGrail